ES Trade 30 June

2220h EST I don't know if I want to trade in this mess. The consolidation was since 1150h!! I will stay out. Looks like she wants higher. But there might be a retrace with 918.50 and 909.50 acting as support.
We are close to the resistance at 925.00. Maybe the reluctance. If she does break. 929.00 is the next barrier. The longer the bulls attack the up momentum number 922.50, the likelihood of breaking to the upside.

I am also reluctant to trade. Can't see what will happen next. Need to regroup after yesterday's "rough day".

0645h EST ES took like 14 hours to move from 920 to 925. Wow! That took like a lot of effort.

0756h EST current sit rep.
0842h EST update
0849h EST long 923.25 x2. Stop 921.75If it cannot break 925.25, I'll bail.
0859h EST +0.91pt 924.25. Stop BE.
0910h EST stopped. +0.82pt
0957h EST short 925.00 x2
0959h EST +0.75pt 924.50 Stop BE +1.24pt nett
1000h EST 922.25 +3.90pt
1014h EST long 918.75 x2
1016h EST stopped +1.22 917.50
1017h EST long 917.75 x2
1018h EST stopped. -0.95pt
1033h EST long 911.75 x2
1040h EST insured 912.75 -0.04pt
1045h EST stopped 910.75 -1.13pt
1056h EST long 912.50 x2
1059h EST insured 913.00 -0.72 stop 912.00
1105h EST stopped 912.00 -1.31pt
1109h EST long 911.00 x2
1111h EST exit 911.50 don't like it. -0.98pt
1131h EST Final thoughts. Should have held on to that beautiful entry at 925.00 for the final contract. Just got jitters from yesterday's loss and didn't hold. Tomorrow another day.

ES Trade 29 June

0544h EST This how not to trade without discipline. What the heck was I doing? I am now behind. -23.25pt. Close to losing last week's win in 1 hour.

I broke my rules. I made a 4th trade after I had 3 consecutive losses in short entries with 4 contracts each. I did not look properly and was too impatient to jump in instead of waiting for the signal. I will not post the trade charts. I am utterly embarrassed.

Later, if any developments, this 4th trade entry is the last trade of today. Wake up! LA!

0612h EST stopped. -29.51 pt nett. That's it. Over for me today.

Summary for 29 June.

This is the chart for 29 June. Looking back, I should have waited for RTH instead of Globex session to trade once I missed that usual 1am - 2am consolidation.
RTH consolidation is at the "up momentum" line 922.62. It was triggered and even closed above it; and even stronger signal. It should continue upwards but there is a lot of reluctance to push beyond.

ES Weekend charts 22 to 26 June

Nett +28 pts this week. I am satisfied. Meeting my daily average.

Now where are we heading here? Anybody's guess. On one hand the Elliot Wave Theorists are all pounding that we are in Wave 4. Then again we have a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the daily chart.

Next I bring to the attention of Fibonacci relationships. This is the daily candles. As one of the resident traders in Kool's Tools VO would say, "I think they will give the Eight Eight Six the college try". They did like 3 times this month. Seems like the bulls might be still in the run after all. Testing the upside. Maybe the E-Wave guys are right?
This is Friday's action; yesterday. This looks like a busy chart. Sorry. Fib extensions of the 10 min. The orange ovals are highlighted fibs. Looks interesting. And the Divergence Spotter calling the signals very well.
That's it until next week. God bless your weekend and family. Make it priceless.

ES Trade 26 June

0139h EST I have not traded yet. Just back from the Marina Barrage on school excursion with the girls. I'll post some pictures. The reason I trade is to get true profit from God and my Family. In case for the folks in the USA, check this link about the Marina Barrage. It is a freshwater catchment dam. Not a grand scale like the Hoover Dam. Girls had fun flying the kite on the roof. Too bad the water play area was closed. A school level Dragon Boat race in session inside the water catchment.

My 2 of 3 daughters. Obviously enjoying themselves.
Here they are enjoying some bad substance their father bought. Sugar and caffeine to make them hyper.Looks like the bull returned to the market in force. 26.75pt range yesterday.

I think we are confirmed to meet 977 to 1040 levels that I have forecasted. Need to break 928 level resistance first.

Read that Farah Fawcett passed on previous day and so did Michael Jackson yesterday. Maybe that's why the markets went up? Their wealth was liquidated back into the market? OK. Sick joke.

Looking at the charts, we might retrace and try 918.50 first followed by a retrace to 906.50 to 912.50.

This is the 30 min ES Chart. I see resistance at 918.50 and 925.00.
0242h EST Sold 915.25 x2
0251h EST +1 pt insurance 914.25. Target 2nd at Cookie Cutter -h3 909.50.
0254h EST Stop 916.00
0307h EST stopped. +0.07.
0309h EST sold 916.75 x2
0312h EST +1pt 915.75 insurance stop 917.50. 2nd 911.75.
0357h EST stop BE. Triple bottoms giving me the creeps.
0414h EST stop 916.00
0426h EST flat 913.75 +3.90 nett
1130h EST sold the rally up to 915.50 x2. Total nett today +10.82. Done. I'll post some weekend charts. Looks like a consolidation before we retest 918.50 level again. Daily chart is looking like a H&S pattern. Have priceless profitable weekend.

ES Trade 25 June

2313h EST Good morning. Noticed I made some errors yesterday. Though I opened my posts on times in Singapore but stamps the updates in EST. Some factual errors.

I bought close to yesterday's LOD 889.50. 888.25 was not yesterday's LOD. So my 15 pt range is 889.50 +15 which gives 904.50. The high was 906.50. Close enough.

Now for today. I sold 900.00 x2 stop 901.00 because of the double top made. I think we head down a little before trying a little bullishness. As usual, I will take 1pt off as insurance. I see support at 897.00. There were incursions towards the 54EMA on the 15min. I would say 3 times though the consolidation since 1800h EST electronic open to 2020h EST would consider it as 1 incursion. The more times they hit that MA, it will most likely break. Depends how the bulls defend.

I am exiting the 2nd as a Cookie Cutter. 893.50.

Go here for the Fed's announcements. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
Warren doesn't think it's green. That is not assuring to investors.

And this news made the spike to 900.00 and I exited. I wouldn't stay to 901.50 because I had made my high target and beyond. Money on the table for the taking so take it. Bird on 900.00 is worth that 14.37 pts I made. Meeting 901.50 or 906.50 target would fan my ego and may not be good for my trading psyche.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 1.8 percent in May.

0000h EST Stopped out. Slippage 0.5pt. -3.18pt

0006h EST Sold again at 901.50 Stopped out again. Sudden bullishness. Slippage again of 0.25pt. -5.85pt nett. Not good. Look at this spike!
Watching. I have a daily projection to 911.00. Stupidly, I should not have sold against the up momentum number. I should have bought.

0021h EST sold 906.50 x2 added 907.00 x1 If the price action does not go below 906.50, I am scratching the trade. This will be my last trade for today if I scratch it or get stopped out.

0101h EST made some plotting, the 20 Jun swing high to 24 Jun swing low 61.8% retrace is 908.25. It just hit 908.50. I do not know what news brought about the spike. Maybe somebody could enlighten me. All I know is stops are made for these. Always trade with stops.

78.6% retrace is 914.75

Making 9.5pts gain at the start of a new day in 10 mins is not exactly a pattern that we can trade with.

0153h EST +1.5pt exit. -4.44pt nett. Stop above the pivot high. 909.00 Target 901.50 and a position 891.50.

0309h EST exit end 902.50 stop 907.00, exit 3rd 902.75. Could not reach the objective 901.50, shy of 1 tick and it ran up. Have to do a "flatten" position button to exit. +3.63 nett. Shy of my 4pt min target by 1 tick. What a recovery! I'll stop now and wait for 0830h EST. The dreaded GDP, Jobless claims and Corporate Profits news.

1037h EST to cut a long story short. I broke even, gave back my profits to the market as I tried to short the rally in the open. Nett ZERO. I am currently in a short where the market hit the up momentum line and failed to close above it. Risk management made me take 1 off so +1 pt. Letting the last one ride down. I think I'd better stick to Globex sessions.
1130h EST Done for the day +0.83. Stop was at BE since that last post. I went to pack for the excursion to the Marina Barrage with the girls tomorrow. Should have just sat on my hands. Well +0.83 nett is better than a negative.

ES Trade 24 June

0103h EST sold 892.25 x4 the Denver Plateau, 0.5pt stop 892.75

0114h EST Stopped out. I am beginning to think that my initial hard stops are far too tight and aggressive. Tried to Log Roll. Unsuccessful. I think Globex sessions slow enough for me to use "Market Fill" orders. The Limit Orders are failing me in entry fills.


0219h EST bought 891.75 x4 feet on 891.50, stop 890.50. Stochastics showing bearish divergence, but they have been wrong before.

Double tops vs triple bottoms.


0228h EST no fill for the 1 pt exit. Made triple tops now.

0229h EST +1 pt, 2nd 894.50 since it started at -h3, I'll take 2nd target at +h3 894.50. 3rd at 899.50 because I believe it is an up day. Place my stop 2 ticks below 100EMA on the 15 min chart which in history proved to be good dynamic resistance/support. See the chart, in the orange ovals.
0237h EST hands on 893.50, thats worrying

0239h EST yes! Punctured through 893.50. Next bar feet on 893.50. 8 min more, Need to keep cool.

0241h EST exit 894.50 x2 Stop BE. +3.88pt nett so far. Minimum daily target met.

0302h EST power failure and a big nasty red bar. Don't like this. Should I take the money off the table or just ride for 899.50?

0305h EST took the last one off with +0.25pt to pay the broker. That was one nasty down bar. +4.05pts nett

0347h EST bought 890.25 x2 upon the inverse power failure stop 889.00

0404h EST no fill for 0.75 pt insurance. This is painful!

0405h EST finally 1st out +0.75 pt as insurance, stop 899.50. Square off if it returns to meet the swing low. Taking this as a position trade to 901.50 objective. If it has trouble overcoming the higher high 895.00 and comes down below 893.50. I'll bail. Why my analysis to exit at the objective 901.50? We had a contracted range yesterday at 9.75 pts. If we take the last swing high on 20 June and the yesterday's swing low(hope it stays that way as a swing low), the 50% retrace is 903.75. We should get a wider range today, at least 15 pts. 888.25 low + 15 pts is 903.25

0409h EST slammed into the 100EMA on the 15 min. Which also sits the objective 891.50. Need more bull power to punch through.


0413h EST great! broke it. Now the 100EMA should become support. On the 30 min chart ES has been making higher highs and high lows since the 884.25 low yesterday. Hope she continues.

0513h EST so far the 100EMA on the 15 min has been providing dynamic support. It is sitting on the 891.50 objective. It is flat and not trending. Only the 54EMA that has been showing a positive gradient. It is approaching 895.00, shy of a tick. The moment of truth.
0537h EST met 895.00 and rejected with a long red spinning top followed by a white doji. That is worrying. Stop 890.50. I am well below the 100EMA and 54EMA. I want to give a chance to myself for being right. But if I am wrong on my analysis, I am wrong and pay the broker for my trading fees. It must break the double top at 895.00 for this to work out.

0557h EST triple tops on 895.00. I am not hopeful but still keeping this position trade. Need the bulls to continually attack 895.00.

0638h EST I see why there is a problem going past 895.00. This is the 15 min chart for the past few days. Fight or Flight? That is the question. Will the bulls overcome the bears heavily defended position?
0723h EST Hurray! The bulls overcame 895.00 and exceeded the 896.50 objective. Now ES needs to close above 896.50 to confirm that it is really going up.

0812h EST Even though the bulls succeed in denting the 895.00 resistance the bears put up, there is no close above 896.50. The inverse could be true, that 896.50 could be the high of the day and ES goes downhill from here.

0837h EST Big white bar! Must be the Durable Goods Order news. Very long and extended. Exit at 900.00 too much at stake. +14.37. Done for the day.

ES Trade 23 June

2202h EST. Bought the 78.6% (18 May low to 6 June high) retrace 888.50. 5x tops made, has to break that. It has trouble going up. This being the Asian open, it is usually consolidation. My plan is to make an exit at +1 for insurance. One at the objection 891.50, move my stop to BE or BE-1. Since I bought at -h3, I plan one exit at the cookie cutter +h3. The last one, at 896.50 objective.

Update 2228h EST +1 pt

Update 2240h EST continued attacks on 888.00 makes me nervous 4x bottoms. Stop is at 887.25. The low is 887.75. Crossing that would mean the end of this trade.

Update 2246h EST met the low 887.75. This is not getting better.

Update 2250h EST at 887.50 1 tick from stopping out. Double top hands on 888.50.

Update 2258h EST Stopped. Nett -4. Stopping me and going back in my favor is going freak me. Must be that STOP SEEKER.

Update 2316h EST Must be the STOP SEEKER. Stopped me and went up to my favor. I tried a log roll. Too late. Made another long entry for 2 at 887.50. 2 dojis, it should reverse to the upside.

Update 2329h EST +1pt. Stop 886.50. Target 896.50. If they stop me, we square off on this trade. I believe today we will see some retrace upward. I might be wrong. Then this market is really sick. It made an extended 32 pt range.

Update 0013h EST It is approaching the first line of resistance, the 54EMA, purple line on the 10 min. It will not go through the first time unless there is a lot of bull power. During Globex, unlikely. I think it will bounce off and try the 2nd time.


Update 0206h EST Stopped out. Doing a Log Roll, re-entry where I was stopped. Should have taken profit upon seeing all the Denver Plateau. Orange ovals.


I am so fed up of the Limit Orders. They hit me and not fill me. Why is everyone in front of me in the queue? Hit me 3 times and no fill. Log Roll is unsuccessful. Market rallied to 890.00 and met the 54EMA head-on. Halted the rally. This is temporal. Another 30 mins, I am out of here for a movie tonight. Nett -0.18.
Update 0403h EST No news when my wife is going to pick me up for the movie. So back to the screens. I saw my favorite counter trend setup. 100EMA lining up with a harmonic. Took the trade but only 1 for a scalp. It is risky. Exit for 2 pts. Nett +1.74pts. I'll buy at -h2 or -h3 if it gets there.

ES Trade 22 June

I am trying Globex sessions. I seem to have better success and a lot more alert. I am trying 3 time slots. 2000h to 2100h, 0100h to 0200h and 0700h to 1100h. All times EST.

Sold 918.50 x4 because the projection was 918.50. The overshoot did make me nervous. I had a 1 pt stop.

Double top hands on 919.25 though the 5x bottom at 918.25 was worrying. It made a further feet at 917.75. I nearly wanted to scratch the trade. But the risk/reward was too good to ignore.

Took 1 off at 919.50. +1
Took 2 off at 916.50. +2 Cumulative +5
Down projection was 909.25. So the last target placement is 909.50. I did not move the stop, I am winning. So if I were to lose, I will lose 1 pt. Else if the target is met I gain 9 pt.

It sliced through the 54EMA and 100EMA which is good. These moving averages did not provide the usual temporal support.

I might at bail at 914.00 Meet my daily high target and quit the rest of the day.

Update 0255h EST. Feet on 914 made me jump. Stochastics is below oversold line. Bailed at 915. Exceeded my daily low target but below my high target. I am satisfied with todays performance with a nett of 8.15 pts.

Update 1716h EST. Back from sending the kids to swim class. Look where the market went? To my projection! The 2 orange ovals are actually a Cookie Cutter trade, +h3 to -h3. I should have kept my cool and maintained position.

I walk away with profit. I should be happy at the result.

There is an outstanding projection yet to be met at 906.00 slightly below the 906.50 objective. On the 15 min chart, the 100EMA provided resistance against the retrace.

ES Trade 15 June to 19 June

This is the new contract roll over.

Did a nett 26 pts with a peak at 32 pts.

Friday was the loss day. Should stuck to my plan which I didn't. I need more discipline on staying with my plan.

Bears attack now with 38.2% retrace since the low we made. Missed the down projection(897.25, low was 899.25) by 2 pts on the daily chart.

Up projection shows it'll try for 938.50, I doubt it.

It is against the deadly (swing high) bounce of 893.00 to 889.75. The 78.6% retrace is at 888.50 since the whole down move to 18 May.

We still have not completed our AB=CD pattern at 100%(977.50) since the 9 Mar low. To do that we need a down leg to 893.00 to make another AB=CD pattern with C=893.00 to the 977.00 area.